The full journey of #CycloneGabrielle from formation near Queensland, Australia to extratropical cyclone near New Zealand. Credit: Zoom Earth. | Chris Lynch

An eyewall replacement cycle causes temporary weakening, and could be extremely helpful in reducing damage from this likely catastrophic storm. From the National Hurricane Center this morning: “Near-term intensity fluctuations are possible this morning and will likely be driven by internal dynamic processes like eyewall replacement cycles. Regardless, Melissa will reach Jamaica as an extremely dangerous major hurricane within the next 12 h. While land interaction with Jamaica and eastern Cuba is